Tom Williams
Axios – The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, above the 187,000 economists expected, the government said on Friday, as the unemployment rate fell back to a 50-year low of 3.5%.
In the actual government BLS report, it stated that notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from the auto strikes. Among the marginally attached, there were 325,000 discouraged workers in November, down by 128,000 from a year earlier. CNBC’s Cramer on the jobs report says, “These are the best numbers of our lives.” See here his report:
But employment data is backward-looking. What does the future hold? To do this, we look to the PMI reports (see News Links on our home page to get the actual data portal). Please check out the inset chart to see the employment chart data and PMI chart data. Here is a brief world tour of the global PMIs:
- China – PMI data signaled a further modest improvement in the health of China’s manufacturing sector – despite the “trade war.” Many believe it will resolve soon.
- Europe – PMI improves to three-month high but signals ongoing contraction. Europe is suffering from immigration and its behemoth social states.
- UK – PMI manufacturing contracts as political and economic uncertainty continues. But recent rises in the British Pound, due to Boris Johnson rising in the polls, indicates that this could this around soon.
- Australian – PMI manufacturing conditions were broadly stagnant in November – largely due to Asian contagion.
- Russia – PMI drops to lowest since May 2009 in November. So much for Trump colluding with the Russians.
- US – November PMI at seven-month high amid a stronger upturn in new orders.
- Canada – Modest recovery in manufacturing performance continues in November – being pulled up by the US economy.
- Global Manufacturing – PMI edges back into expansion territory. However, it is still largely stagnant, due to European and Asian contagion.
It is a bit of a “Tale of Two Cities” like report. The US is doing great, but the rest of the world is stagnating. Like many times in the past, the US is pulling up the rest of the world, though just marginally. If much of the political turmoil in the US and global trade issues can be resolved, after a Trump election in 2020, the word can get back to even greater business. Just think of the potential possibilities we could do as a human race.
In short for November 2019, the Trump economy is like the “Energizer Bunny,” it just keeps going. The economic policies under the Trump administration are working. Much to the chagrin of Democrats. See this report on African American unemployment – again, a very positive report. But the Democrats are crafty. They will stop at nothing to try to talk down the successes and outright stop the Trump economy if they could.
This all bodes well for Trump heading into the 2020 presidential elections. We will watch the economy closely, so stay with RFS1 over the next months to follow the success accordingly.
