Coronavirus Math

CDC Reports: 26.3% Less “All Deaths” in 2020 than 2018 – Gobbledygook Coronavirus Math

Please note this article has been updated (October 24, 2020) with more recent data from the CDCCLICK HERE.

Please note this article has been updated (February 28, 2021) with more recent data from the CDCCLICK HERE.

Dr. Jonathan Temte, associate dean for public health and community engagement at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health in addressing the argument that numbers showing the prevalence of COVID-19 are overstated, Temte said that’s wrong.

Really? Let’s fact check this – be patient, read carefully, and take the time to walk through the data slowly.

According to Temte, an actual death count doesn’t exist, in part because of statutes such as Wisconsin’s that only require providers to report pediatric deaths from influenza. It’s voluntary to report flu deaths from adults. Additionally, Wisconsin does not require influenza testing to be reported. “Influenza ascertainment has always been nebulous,” he said. ‘In the best circumstances, we can assess what happens within a clinical population.” Temte has been part of a clinic-based surveillance program run out of five family medicine clinics in Dane County over the past 11 years.

Temte pointed to a graphic from the CDC that comes out weekly and reports the percentage of deaths in the U.S. due to pneumonia, influenza, and now COVID-19. During the 2009-10 influenza season, 8.1% of people who died had either influenza or pneumonia. Another bad influenza year in 2017-18 saw this pneumonia – and flu-related deaths peak at 10%. But the week ending April 11 this year hit a record 23.5% of deaths by COVID-19, influenza or pneumonia compared to the total number of deaths.

Temte said each week, the CDC reports the percentage of deaths in the U.S. due to pneumonia, influenza, and now COVID-19. During the 2009-10 influenza season, 8.1% of people who died had either influenza or pneumonia. During 2017-18 those pneumonia- and flu-related deaths peaked at 10%.

First off, Temte assertion of the 23.5% is wrong, it should be 18.84%. Ok, perhaps we are being a stickler for details but accuracy is important. The point is that this number is a cherry-picked weekly number. When looking at the “to date” percentages it is 3.87%. Well within the norms of prior years. I have pre-downloaded and sorted the spreadsheet (see tab 2020-WorkSheet) here – but please feel free to do this exercise yourself. Note that the data could have changed since Temte made his assertions. For the year 2020 according to Temte citation (CDC data) the “All Deaths” rate through May 2, 2020, was 787,181.

Taking the data from the CDC Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2014-2018, then selecting for “All Deaths” for the year 2018 through May 05, 2018, you come up with 1,066,832 deaths. I have pre-downloaded and sorted the spreadsheet (see tab 2018) here – but please feel free to do this exercise yourself.

Through the same period, the CDC “All Death” total numbers are 279,651‬ less (or 26.3% less) in 2020 than in 2018.

So we all become hysterical and make a run on toilet paper? YES, the numbers are in question and our health authorities must explain. Right Wire Report are not virology doctors, but we can do the math. This is also not to say there are not people dying and the COVID-19 virus is not something to worry about. But we must keep it in perspective.

As Right Wire Report has said before, there have been many reports coming in questioning the current COVID-19 death rates. Here and here are just a few examples. Here at Right Wire Report, we have as well called into question these numbers – see here, here and here. Are in fact COVID-19 deaths being grossly misrepresented? Whether the accounting of the statistical data is nefarious or not is yet another question. All this matters, as it is driving many major policy-making decisions by politicians.

The U.S. economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April 2020 and the unemployment rate is near 15%. The global economy is heading to a global depression based on data that makes little sense. If the truth of the underlying data is not well understood it will have catastrophic results.

 RWR original article syndication source.

Share this:

What do you think?

Written by Tom Williams

Born down on the farm in America's Midwest, my early life was spent climbing the ladder via a long career in information technology. Starting as a technician, and after earning a degree going to night school, I eventually found a place working at ATT Bell Laboratories as a software engineer.

Later moving into management and then a long stint in a major management consulting firm working with major banking, telecommunications, and retail companies. Working in various states in America, I also spent considerable time living and working in several European countries - currently expat in France. As a side career, I was heavily involved in real estate development and an avid futures trader. This experience can give one a unique view of the world.

The storm clouds of dark change are near. Today America is at a crossroads. Will it maintain its prowess as a national leader in the free modern advancing world, or will it backtrack in the abyss of the envy identity politics of tyrannical socialism, and the loss of individual freedoms. The 2020 election may have decided this. Join the Right Wire Report team and make a stand.

32 Comments

Leave a Reply
  1. Hopefully the righteous maintain power and history is written by those who tel the truth. This period of history if told accurately will be beyond stunning and reveals the level of negative traits of mankind.

    • In order for the righteous to “maintain” power, they would have to have said power to begin with. Unfortunately, the fact that the people in power are the opposite of righteous, is precisely why they would pull something so despicable in the first place.

  2. Veteran Today recently published a debate between one of their Marxist editors and “the guy at the end of the bar” over the severity of ‘COV19. The editor claimed current death rates in the US far exceed those in recent rears. He did not practice attribution and identify his source, and his opponent in the debate was virtually ignorant of everything related to COV19. and could not challenge the editor.

    • I pulled the CDC numbers myself as suggested and 2020 “All Deaths” are at a higher rate as of the 40th week of the year than either 2018 or 2019. CDC reports all deaths for 2018 at 2,839,205 and 2019 at 2,852,609 (very similar rates). As of the 40th week of the year, 2020 deaths are 2,427,881. For the same week in 2019, deaths were 2,181,412, Assuming the current 10 week running average holds, 2020 will see “All Deaths” at around 3,091,133. Significantly higher than any previous year in US history.

      • So based on the the CDC’s data there are 246,469 more deaths due to ALL CAUSES in 2020 vs 2019 up to WEEK 40 (10 months)?
        This would seem to neatly explain the 217,717 deaths due to COVID-19 and even seem to allow for 28,752 remaining deaths which might be explained as those due to the effect of the lockdowns preventing or discouraging people from reaching hospitals.
        E.g.:the severe reduction of normal medical operations and procedures canceled, postponed or delayed because of COVID-19.
        I remain skeptical of the CDCs figures since there is too much at stake here in political power and further research is required.

        Country comparisons based on CFR as of October 16, 2020:
        The Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) measures the fatalities among all DETECTED cases i.e. those diagnosed as sick.
        Mexico = 10.21%
        Italy = 9.53%
        UK = 6.43%
        Canada = 5.06%
        Sweden = 5.73%
        France = 4.09%
        Germany = 2.81%
        USA = 2.71%
        (Source: Oxford University Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM)) .

        Also note that each country has different conditions e.g.:
        Italy has the world’s highest % of elderly people.
        Italy has a high % of people who are resistant to antibiotics (highest in Europe).
        Also note that: “Furthermore, they may be using different case definitions and testing strategies or counting cases differently (for example, with mild cases not being tested or counted).” CEBM.
        And Initial CFRs trend downward over the duration of the pandemic.

        By comparison the USA remains much better in terms of CFR compared to many countries.
        But this is no comfort in terms of total deaths.

        Which raises a critical question on determining the cause of death.
        Here is a quote from the CEBM website regarding Italy:
        “In this article, Professor Walter Ricciardi, Scientific Adviser to, Italy’s Minister of Health, reports, “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”
        Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR.”
        Source CEBM: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/.

        Conclusion:
        Since the CDC some weeks ago showed the number of deaths with direct causality as 6% then how do we determine the cause of the remaining 94%?
        Did they die FROM COVID-19 or simply WITH it?
        The CDC’s figure of total deaths FROM COVID-19 must be challenged.

  3. Not true at all. I pulled the CDC numbers myself as suggested and 2020 “All Deaths” are at a higher rate as of the 40th week of the year than either 2018 or 2019. CDC reports all deaths for 2018 at 2,839,205 and 2019 at 2,852,609 (very similar rates). As of the 40th week of the year, 2020 deaths are 2,427,881. For the same week in 2019, deaths were 2,181,412, Assuming the current 10 week running average holds, 2020 will see “All Deaths” at around 3,091,133. Significantly higher than any previous year in US history.

    • But still not the 5-10 MILLION deaths we were promised from fakes like Dr.Neil Fergessan (the authority used for covid Regulation) Look at it this way: even if he were correct this is NOT about CoVID…it is a well documented method of overturning everything 500 MILLION died for in war for freedom and to prevent one world Governemnt tyranny. Even 3-5 MILLION is acceptable -compared to destroying the lives of 300 Million. Yes, that includes losing friends and family members. They are the victims of warfare, using bioweapons , Why no concern about the danger of the illegal COVID research 10 years ago in the US, , moving to China and funded by the very people controlling the solution ? This is war. People die in war…but also just LIVING. Every other death suddenly does not exist. Every other cause of death pre-covid did not shut down our freedom , economy etc…NOT EVEN WORLD WAR 2 !,

    • so this extra 200,000 is a pandemic to shutdown everything? killing mostly over 65 year olds that have MASSIVE conditions??
      not significant AT ALL. whats 200,000 out of 3,000,000?

    • Yeah… so as of today, there have been 2,616,858 deaths. You still think 400,000 people are going to die in the US in the next 30 days?

    • Did you calculate death from suicide children and adults?
      Did you calculate overdoses of both as well?
      2018, 2019, 2020

  4. All I wanted was the flat deaf total for the US from January 1st to like October 1st yeah I couldn’t give me a flat number what the hell is wrong with you!

  5. Why is the U.S. depending upon voting machines and software developed by other countries? Seems like we have more controls on child safety seats than our voting mechanisms?

    • You are very clearly just reading the headline and conclusion and not understanding the nonsense number soup being used to show excess deaths. To most people “excess deaths” would mean the amount more than the same period last year or something similar to that. That is NOT what your link shows. Less deaths this year(facts matter sir) do not equal “excess deaths”. Please view data, not propaganda.

  6. GET TO THE POINT OF THE MATTER: OVERALL DEATHS. PUT THE DATA ON A CHART. THAT’S ALL WE NEED TO KNOW- DON’T MUDDY THE WATERS WITH COVID INFO- WE WANT TO BYPASS THAT QUAGMIRE.

    • Without understanding how data is attributed and collected, we subject ourselves to being grossly misled. Today’s media has plenty of examples of how that is achieved. You could write an entire encyclopedia with the prevalent disinformation .

  7. From a few minutes on reading excess death statistics from the CDC and the media, it seems like they want to state that the only reasonable explanation for excess deaths is Covid-19. Is there any other reasons for excess deaths? One possible reason immediately comes to mind; lack of healthcare access. Has there been any studies performed on the number of doctor/patient visits, separated by in-person or conference call visits, that track overall death rates? How many normal preventative diagnostic tests have been provided to patients during routine medical check-ups? My wife’s pancreatic cancer diagnosis was caught before the lockdown because a office visit to our family doctor resulted in a referral for imaging procedures. Fortunately, the cancer proved to be a slow growth variant. Are people with undiagnosed or diagnosed life threatening diseases receiving adequate medical care through video/audio doctor visits? There could be other viable reasons that would contribute to statistically significant increase in the death rate, but that would mean an objective analysis of the facts.

    • Take into account that age 65+ had increased 3% in 2020 and of course the overall death rate will increase. There is no data that shows any significant rise in death in 2020 due to covid.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

NYT WAPO Vomit

NYT and WAPO Vomit Out Their Latest Sick Propaganda – Trump Death Clock

Southerners For Trump

A Call to Patriots to Stand and Support Our President – Donald Trump