Coronavirus Math

Gobbledygook Coronavirus Math Updates

The benefits of having historical data to make any analysis is always easier. Back in the middle of the Coronavirus “pandemic,” we reported on the Gobbledygook Coronavirus Math. In the fog of breaking events, sometimes the analysis can skew one’s thinking. Hence, the Right Wire Report has been asked to update this article with the new data from the CDC for the U.S. and put the new data into a meaningful perspective. 

First, let’s get the CDC data and understand it a little better. Click here for the CDC final counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by the state of occurrence, and by select causes of death for 2014 to 2018. Click here for the CDC provisional counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by the state of occurrence, and by select underlying causes of death for 2019 and 2020. The key important thing to remember, as the CDC says – provisional counts. So, though it is reporting to week 39 the death counts for 2020 as of this post’s writing, week 39 is not even 50% completed in terms of receiving even close to 95% of all its data. One most likely should only look to about week 36 (at least 4 weeks lagging) for any meaningful data to make any analysis. The CDC is merely reporting what they see at the time of the data’s posting (and will be continually updated over time) – it does take time for all the data to come.

The analysis is first to combine the data (click here for our CDC worksheet) of the recent CDC projected data and the CDC’s final data to see historical trends over the past 5 years. We threw out weeks 37 to 39 for 2020, due to the data not being reasonably complete. For a full year projection, we took an average of the past 5 years and replaced weeks 37 to 52 data with this average to understand what the full 2020 year might look like. Note as well, we are comparing the previous 5-year average where there was no “pandemics” to a year with a “pandemic.” Here is a summary chart showing the past 5 years and the current 2020 year to week 36.

The key takeaways from this CDC data:

  • In the U.S., there indeed may be a projected additional 290,000 deaths in 2020 when compared to the past 5 years. But do note that this does not necessarily say that these additional deaths are only due to COVID, though most likely had an influence. Note that for weeks 37 to 52, that we used in our analysis are projections based on the average of the past 5 years.
  • The headline that states, “CDC Says Only 6% Of COVID Deaths Cited COVID Alone,” appears to be reasonably true based on this CDC data. Our calculation was 7.9% – close enough for government work.

Putting this CDC data into context and understanding the policy considerations:

  • Though 290,000 deaths in the U.S. are horrible, it does need to be put into perspective – it is only about 0.08% of the U.S. population. Knowing this, would one lockdown the entire population for months sending the global economies into a depression? And what of the potential unintended consequences of potential “other” harms this policy would inflict on the same population. An opinion for sure, but the Right Wire Report would say a resounding NO!
  • According to the CDC, the age groups of 65 and older had death rates 90 to 630 times higher than the controlled group of healthy 18 to 29 year-olds. The CDC data validated that older Americans, who tend to have higher co-morbidity issues, were far more susceptible to COVID19 deaths. This gives rise to the idea that quarantining the sick and old may have been more effective than a blanket general lockdown of the healthy. Furthermore, though not always clear, the CDC has stated that lockdowns have not been effective, as well as many of the mask policies. The Right Wire Report suggests that the CDC should re-examine their recommendations and policies for “pandemics” such as COVID19 in the future.

Dr. Birx on March 20, 2020, predicted up to 200,000 U.S. Coronavirus deaths “if we do things almost perfectly.” Clearly, the Trump administration’s Coronavirus efforts have achieved fairly close to this objective:

Again, hindsight analysis is always easier, and no president or government agency will ever be perfect. However, the Trump administration’s response to the Coronavirus has by far been closer to being correct than many of his naysaying political opponents. What China’s responsibility is, being the source of this “pandemic” and the politicization of “pandemics” by politicians will be of further concern. 

The Right Wire Report hopes this removes some of the gobbledygook math concerning COVID19 and will do additional updates as warranted.

 RWR original article syndication source.

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Written by Tom Williams

Born down on the farm in America's Midwest, my early life was spent climbing the ladder via a long career in information technology. Starting as a technician, and after earning a degree going to night school, I eventually found a place working at ATT Bell Laboratories as a software engineer.

Later moving into management and then a long stint in a major management consulting firm working with major banking, telecommunications, and retail companies. Working in various states in America, I also spent considerable time living and working in several European countries - currently expat in France. As a side career, I was heavily involved in real estate development and an avid futures trader. This experience can give one a unique view of the world.

The storm clouds of dark change are near. Today America is at a crossroads. Will it maintain its prowess as a national leader in the free modern advancing world, or will it backtrack in the abyss of the envy identity politics of tyrannical socialism, and the loss of individual freedoms. The 2020 election may have decided this. Join the Right Wire Report team and make a stand.

20 Comments

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  1. Thank you RWR for this update to week 36 for 2020 with projections based on previous years to estimate the total for all of 2020.
    The CDC graph above simplifies the data over the years.
    So it appears COV-19 is approximately 4 times more fatal than the general flu which kills about 60,000 per year.
    Birx’s comment referring to 200,000 estimated estimated total deaths if it is handled perfectly would appear to suggest that Trump’s administration has been effective in minimizing deaths.

    • I am not sure one can say, “So it appears COV-19 is approximately 4 times more fatal than the general flu which kills about 60,000 per year.” Only (our calculations) about 7.9% of the COVID19 deaths are pure COVID19 caused … the rest had co-morbidities, though for sure it may have contributed to these deaths. For example, increased suicides and deaths caused by a lack of treatments of other diseases. But for sure it is more fatal than the general flu – how much more would be a difficult calculation with lots of unvalidated assumptions.

      • Yes, agreed that (my emphasis added): “for sure it MAY have contributed to these deaths”.
        And agreed that there has been an increase in deaths due to suicides and deaths caused by a lack of treatments of other diseases.
        Your determination to adhere to true science is evident.
        I would push the science to an investigation of the CDC itself.

  2. Very informative and I’m prepared to accept the projected total of 290,000 more deaths from ALL CAUSES for 2020.
    But this will now need to be investigated to determine how many deaths are from the lock downs and how many COVID-19 deaths were due to incompetence or recklessness as in the case of Governor Cuomo of NYC.

      • Your referring to all the needless deaths due to putting Covid patients in the nursing homes. Cause the death rate to sky rocket? I just saw where they tried to pass a bill thru making it mandatory to put covid patients in the nursing homes. It’s scary how bold the left is in showing their hand. Thay want us to know exactly what they are doing!

  3. 58yo female. C/S transposition in June 2020, followed by open-heart surgery in July 2020. UW Medical Center, Seattle. Nurse said they had ZERO COVID patients in house at that time. NONE! My walks in the hallways showed plenty of empty beds. So where are all the COVID’s hiding? Seattle is suppose to be a hotbed. I was in contact with probably at least 100 healthcare workers over my 2 stays. Besides feeling like shit in general after major surgeries, I’m alive and well. I would have been the perfect host for COVID.

  4. The extra 100k deaths were created when the 4 governors put covid (flu) patients in nursing homes. This was planned out from the fear mothering to the mail in ballots to steal an election away from a sitting president and to usher in the WEF great reset aka new normal aka new world order aka communism

  5. Can you explain why the CDC mortality data by cause does not add up to the total? Also which category would account for drug overdoses and suicides?
    Thank you!

  6. In all the talk of Wuhan virus figures the elephant in the room is the demographic shift in those who are dying….they are the baby boomers.

    So yearly mortality is going up, and will continue to do so year on year until about 2055.

    This boomers had better health care but a poorer diet, higher numbers taking illicit drugs….etc….etc.

    This bug would not of affected previous generations like it has affected the boomers.

    To me the definition of a pandemic is how it affects the young….Wuhan virus was not a problem to the vast majority when it was shown that healthy young people didn’t succumb in great numbers.

    This episode has been more an indictment on our food choice!

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