The benefits of having historical data to make any analysis is always easier. Back in the middle of the Coronavirus “pandemic,” we reported on the Gobbledygook Coronavirus Math. In the fog of breaking events, sometimes the analysis can skew one’s thinking. Hence, the Right Wire Report has been asked to update this article with the new data from the CDC for the U.S. and put the new data into a meaningful perspective.
First, let’s get the CDC data and understand it a little better. Click here for the CDC final counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by the state of occurrence, and by select causes of death for 2014 to 2018. Click here for the CDC provisional counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by the state of occurrence, and by select underlying causes of death for 2019 and 2020. The key important thing to remember, as the CDC says – provisional counts. So, though it is reporting to week 39 the death counts for 2020 as of this post’s writing, week 39 is not even 50% completed in terms of receiving even close to 95% of all its data. One most likely should only look to about week 36 (at least 4 weeks lagging) for any meaningful data to make any analysis. The CDC is merely reporting what they see at the time of the data’s posting (and will be continually updated over time) – it does take time for all the data to come.
The analysis is first to combine the data (click here for our CDC worksheet) of the recent CDC projected data and the CDC’s final data to see historical trends over the past 5 years. We threw out weeks 37 to 39 for 2020, due to the data not being reasonably complete. For a full year projection, we took an average of the past 5 years and replaced weeks 37 to 52 data with this average to understand what the full 2020 year might look like. Note as well, we are comparing the previous 5-year average where there was no “pandemics” to a year with a “pandemic.” Here is a summary chart showing the past 5 years and the current 2020 year to week 36.
The key takeaways from this CDC data:
- In the U.S., there indeed may be a projected additional 290,000 deaths in 2020 when compared to the past 5 years. But do note that this does not necessarily say that these additional deaths are only due to COVID, though most likely had an influence. Note that for weeks 37 to 52, that we used in our analysis are projections based on the average of the past 5 years.
- The headline that states, “CDC Says Only 6% Of COVID Deaths Cited COVID Alone,” appears to be reasonably true based on this CDC data. Our calculation was 7.9% – close enough for government work.
Putting this CDC data into context and understanding the policy considerations:
- Though 290,000 deaths in the U.S. are horrible, it does need to be put into perspective – it is only about 0.08% of the U.S. population. Knowing this, would one lockdown the entire population for months sending the global economies into a depression? And what of the potential unintended consequences of potential “other” harms this policy would inflict on the same population. An opinion for sure, but the Right Wire Report would say a resounding NO!
- According to the CDC, the age groups of 65 and older had death rates 90 to 630 times higher than the controlled group of healthy 18 to 29 year-olds. The CDC data validated that older Americans, who tend to have higher co-morbidity issues, were far more susceptible to COVID19 deaths. This gives rise to the idea that quarantining the sick and old may have been more effective than a blanket general lockdown of the healthy. Furthermore, though not always clear, the CDC has stated that lockdowns have not been effective, as well as many of the mask policies. The Right Wire Report suggests that the CDC should re-examine their recommendations and policies for “pandemics” such as COVID19 in the future.
Dr. Birx on March 20, 2020, predicted up to 200,000 U.S. Coronavirus deaths “if we do things almost perfectly.” Clearly, the Trump administration’s Coronavirus efforts have achieved fairly close to this objective:
Again, hindsight analysis is always easier, and no president or government agency will ever be perfect. However, the Trump administration’s response to the Coronavirus has by far been closer to being correct than many of his naysaying political opponents. What China’s responsibility is, being the source of this “pandemic” and the politicization of “pandemics” by politicians will be of further concern.
The Right Wire Report hopes this removes some of the gobbledygook math concerning COVID19 and will do additional updates as warranted.