We have finally arrived at Election Day before the momentous and pivotal 2020 U.S. Presidential election results are known. It has been exhausting, to say the least. The debates have concluded that all the policy positions have been made and endless political advertising. Much early voting has already occurred, but thoughts now turn to predictions, as many go to the polls this November 3, 2020.
Some key election process takeaways in terms of positives for each side of the political divide, as we see it at the Right Wire Report, are as follows:
Positives for the Republicans:
- Trump enthusiasm is off the charts and will translate into a large voter turnout. No need for a citation here. Trump has been doing multiple rallies almost every day – they are like rock concerts. No one really likes Joe Biden. People that vote for Biden are merely voting against Trump.
- If the vote becomes close, as it was in 2000, with the installation of the new Supreme Court Justice Amy Barrett, any Supreme Court decisions that would affect the election outcome would favor the Republicans. In addition, an Electoral College tie would favor the Republicans in any 12th amendment resolution because of more states being Republican-leaning.
- The Joe and Hunter Biden scandal was breaking at the last minute of this election and may sway voters and give a surge to Trump. However, the media has been reasonably effective to obfuscate the news event and nearly 2/3 of the electorate may have already voted and voted without this knowledge.
Positives for the Democrats:
- Voter turnout in the election could reach the highest rate (65%) in more than a century (in 2016, 55.5%). High voter turnout tends to favor Democrats, as there are more registered Democrats than Republicans (11% advantage).
- Increased potential voter fraud brought on by new voting processes (i.e., email, mail-in ballots) tend to favor Democrats who largely live in more heavily populated areas – see vote fraud tracker.
- Media bias greatly favors Democrats – this would include social media bias.
- Campaign funding favors the Democrats by over 40% percent. For Joe Biden about $1.4bn and about $0.9bn for Trump, though, as we saw in 2016, it did not help Hillary Clinton, who outspent Trump nearly 2 to 1.
Since about 78% of voters tend to vote straight tickets in terms of their party affiliations, this means that whoever wins the presidency will benefit that party. Looking at the down-ticket elections, here is how it may break out:
- Senate – In projecting the Senate, if Trump wins either in a landslide, Trump wins marginally, or even Biden wins marginally – Republicans will keep control of the Senate. If Biden wins the presidency soundly, the Democrats may marginally win the Senate (50/50 or 51/49 in favor of the Democrats).
- House – The House most likely will remain in control of the Democrats. The final count of Representatives in the House will be modified in relation to the Presidential winner’s party.
The Presidential Electoral College:
The Right Wire Report maintains a political members team on Paltalk and Discord that is used to monitor events, discuss, debate, and provide input to our website. You are welcome to join – especially on election night. We have polled many of our members to develop our own Electoral College maps – based upon using this tool (give it a try and make your own Electoral College map predictions). Here are some polling resources used – here (270 to win), here (Real Clear Politics), here (Five Thirty Eight), here (Rasmussen), and here (YouGov). The following are some of these results based on changes from the 2016 Electoral Map:
Scenario #1 (NV, CO, IL, and ME flip Red): Ladybay_tn
Scenario #2 (NV, MN, and VA flip Red): California_Brunette29
Scenario #3 (NH, MN, and NJ flip Red): Bomb
Scenario #4 (NV, MN, and CO flip Red): Fhz48
Scenario #5 (NV, MN, and CO flip Red): Jester
Scenario #6 (NV, NH, MN and one Elector in Main flip Red): Bekahlyons
Scenario #7 (NV, NM, and MN flip Red): Sharin_2
Scenario #8 (NV and MN flip Red): Clemson Rules
Scenario #9 (NJ flip Red): Classy Conservative
Scenario #10 (NV flip Red. WI and MI flip Blue): Browncoats
Scenario #11 (AZ, WI, and MI flip Blue): BlueDay
Scenario #12 (AZ, WI, and MI flip Blue): BlueAgent007
Scenario #13 (PA WI, and MI flip Blue): Pox
These were some of the Right Wire Report member predictions (if we missed your prediction, please place it in the comment section of this post). The following is the Right Wire Report average and final prediction (NV and 1 Elector in Maine flip Red):
Now it is your turn – take the following poll and make your voice heard.
Please feel free to comment below on your thoughts on these predictions. If you do not like these predictions, the best alternative is to get out and VOTE and change these predictions – but vote wisely.