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Chart of the Day: Run Chicken Little, the GDP is Falling!

We saw the signs. We tried to warn. Now in our darkest hour, we find that … the GDP is falling … the GDP is falling … the GDP is falling. And what is the strategy of our leaders to save us from certain doom?

RUN !!!

Yes, our economic leaders are in panic mode – print more money, more useless regulations, more central bank jawboning, and more quantitative gobble-de-gook … all for not. Chicken Little and the strategy of “run” is at play. The unfortunate video below describes well our elite leaders.

Who would of “thunk” that all this reckless government spending and endless printing of central bank money would end in tears? Let’s roll the charts and see the falling GDP.

The OECD is the latest international institution to slash global growth this year and warns of rising inflation. It trimmed 1.5 percentage points from its December global growth outlook to 3% for 2022 while downshifting global growth estimates to 2.8% for 2023. See the chart below and learn more here.

GDP OECD 2022-05The World Bank has just slashed its 2022 global growth forecast to +2.9% (1.2 percentage points below January’s forecast) and also blamed Putin. See this in the chart below and learn more here.

GDP World Bank 2022-06

IMF says the war will slow economic growth and increase inflation. Overall economic risks have risen sharply, and policy tradeoffs have become even more challenging. See the IMF growth target in the chart below and learn more here.

GDP IMF 2022-04The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.61 percentage points to -1.62 percentage points. See this in the chart below and learn more here.

GDP Alanta Fed Gdpnow 2022-05

So the summary of the “GDP is falling” of economic estimations in just a few months time is as follows.

  • OECD GDP global model from near 4.5% down to 2.9%.
  • OECD GDP global model from near 4.5% down to 3%.
  • IMF GDP global model from near 5% down to 3.5%.
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow US model has fallen from 2.6% down to 0.9%.

And the above GDP downgrades could eventually go even lower. So our leaders once again didn’t have a clue what they were doing, and the central bankers around the world are running to and fro like Chicken Little.

  1. They ran and printed money at unprecedented rates and then were surprised they created 40-year high inflation rates. But they were smart enough to start a war to have a boogie man to blame.
  2. Now with 40-year high inflation, they turn and run 180 degrees in the opposite direction to clean up the mess of all their prior money printing … and guess what … “the GDP is falling.” Who could of possibly “thunk” that would have happened?
  3. What happens next? Turn and run 180 degrees in the opposite direction again. Go to step one – rinse and repeat until we are all broke.

So the Chicken Littles around the world are running circles flipping to and fro with their policies, making what they think is a better world. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is running a muck. As we have mentioned many times before, this is not complicated. See the formula of the Value of Money below.

Value of Money = GDP / Money Supply

We already saw above what the GDP rates are doing – what of the Money Supply? Looking briefly at US money supply growth over the past few quarters, it is not pretty. It is well over 25% annum and currently does not look transitory, though the Fed has promised recently the contrary. See this in the chart below and learn more here.

Money Supply Growth 2022-04So using simple fractional math, if you grow the denominator of the Money Value formula by +25% (Money Supply) and only grow the numerator (GDP) at near zero percent … guess what? The value of money declines, and the results are predictable.

INFLATION !!!

Learn more here about how this currency debasement scheme can rob the citizens and destroy an economic system. Judging how much we have currency debased, one could argue that we have yet to see this round’s fullest effect. Would some on please send Chicken Little this message before he runs us all off the cliff?

Or, for those from the dark side … it’s all part of the plan … click here if you dare.

See more Chart of the Day posts.

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 RWR original article syndication source.

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  1. More of the same from Far Right anti intellectual types…………..where is the statistical analysis??? Where are the correlation metrics?? Where is causation established?? Where are the prescribed policy initiatives to tackle the issues at hand?? Again, more of the same .

    • The correlation as shown in the charts, is clear – print more money (growth in the money supply – the GDP), and you have the 40-year high inflation. The solution is clear, as mentioned in other articles at the Right Wire Report – return to a fixed monetary system and stop the excessive government spending.

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Written by Tom Williams

Born down on the farm in America's Midwest, my early life was spent climbing the ladder via a long career in information technology. Starting as a technician, and after earning a degree going to night school, I eventually found a place working at ATT Bell Laboratories as a software engineer.

Later moving into management and then a long stint in a major management consulting firm working with major banking, telecommunications, and retail companies. Working in various states in America, I also spent considerable time living and working in several European countries - currently expat in France. As a side career, I was heavily involved in real estate development and an avid futures trader. This experience can give one a unique view of the world.

The storm clouds of dark change are near. Today America is at a crossroads. Will it maintain its prowess as a national leader in the free modern advancing world, or will it backtrack in the abyss of the envy identity politics of tyrannical socialism, and the loss of individual freedoms. The 2020 election may have decided this. Join the Right Wire Report team and make a stand.

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